The /Film Crew’s 2017 Oscar Predictions
Predicting theOscarsis an art. you’re able to’t look at the nominees and pick personal favorites. You can’t side with the movies that you think deserve to win. You have to look over those 27 categories and put yourself in the shoes of 6,000 voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Science and think “What aretheygoing to vote for?”
So welcome to the second annual/Film Oscar Predictions Contest, where we put our heads together to predict the winners of the biggest movie awards show of the year. Feel free to play along.
You may rememberlast year’s contest, where Ethan Anderton didn’t just win – he obliterated everyone else. This year, he faces stiff competition: Peter Sciretta, Angie Han, Jacob Hall, David Chen, Jack Giroux, Devindra Hardawar, and Christopher Stipp submitted predictions this time. Some of the crew did careful homework. Others knocked out their predictions in five minutes. The winner gets bragging rights for the next year.
Here’s how it works. Each writer had 100 points per category and could split them up as they saw fit. This means a writer could put all 100 points on a single film in that category or split them up amongst several nominees to hedge their bet. If they have any points on a film that wins its category, they get those points. Simple enough, right? Whoever has the most points when the ceremony is over, wins.
But first, we have combined everyone’s numbers into one master list that reflects the site’s overall predictions. Let’s take a look at who /Film thinks will walk home with Oscar gold on Sunday.
BEST PICTURE
Arrival– 50 points
Fences- 0 points
Hacksaw Ridge- 0 points
Hell or High Water- 0 points
Hidden Figures- 10 points
La La Land– 550 points
Lion- 0 points
Manchester by the Sea- 10 points
Moonlight- 180 points
With a record-tying 14 nominations,La La Landis not only the favorite to win Best Picture, it’s the favorite to win…well, just about everything. However, our staff thinks that if anyone can upset the frontrunners, it’sMoonlight.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Casey Affleck,Manchester by the Sea- 620 points
Andrew Garfield,Hacksaw Ridge- 0 points
Ryan Gosling,La La Land- 120 points
Viggo Mortensen,Captain Fantastic- 0 points
Denzel Washington,Fences- 60 points
Casey Affleck has dominated the awards season so far and our numbers reflect that accordingly. Ryan Gosling may get caught up in theLa La Landtrain and Oscar voters sure love Denzel Washington, but this is Affleck’s to lose.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Isabelle Huppert,Elle– 80 points
Ruth Negga,Loving- 20 points
Natalie Portman,Jackie- 0 points
Emma Stone,La La Land- 700 points
Meryl Streep,Florence Foster Jenkins- 0 points
If one ofLa La Land’s two leads is going home with a trophy on Sunday, it’s going to be Emma Stone. It’s possible to imagine an Isabelle Huppert upset, butcome on.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Mahershala Ali,Moonlight- 720 points
Jeff Bridges,Hell or High Water- 35 points
Lucas Hedges,Manchester by the Sea- 0 points
Dev Patel,Lion- 45 points
Michael Shannon,Nocturnal Animals- 0 points
Out of our predictions, Mahershala Ali scored more points than anyone else. With the exception of the Golden Globes, Ali has scooped up nearly ever substantial supporting actor award over the past few months and Oscar voters will see this as an opportunity to honorMoonlightwhile giving everything else toLa La Land.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Viola Davis,Fences- 620 points
Naomie Harris,Moonlight- 70 points
Nicole Kidman,Lion- 0 points
Octavia Spencer,Hidden Figures– 10 points
Michelle Williams,Manchester by the Sea- 100 points
This category has been Viola Davis' to lose ever sinceFenceswas first announced. The only thing standing in her way are voters who think that this is “category fraud” and that Davis actually belongs in the lead actress category. But no one can argue with her actual work onscreen.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Kubo and the Two Strings– 20 points
Moana- 270 points
My Life as a Zucchini- 0 points
The Red Turtle- 0 points
Zootopia- 510 points
The big question is which Disney animated film is going home with a shiny Oscar on Sunday? We’re giving the edge toZootopia, but we left plenty of room for aMoanaupset.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Arrival- 190 points
La La Land- 510 points
Moonlight- 100 points
Silence- 0 points
In terms of pure beauty and excellence, every nominated film here deserves recognition. And because of that,La La Landwill probably win by default because it’s going to win everything else.
COSTUME DESIGN
Allied- 90 points
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them- 85 points
Florence Foster Jenkins- 15 points
Jackie- 360 points
La La Land– 160 points
What’s this? A category whereLa La Landisn’t going to win? Oscar voters tend to favorite historical films in this category and the stylish, period-appropriate clothing inJackiereally is a wonder to behold.
Arrival- 50 points
La La Land- 660 points
Manchester by the Sea- 0 points
Moonlight– 90 points
Get ready for your close-up, Damien Chazelle. Anyone else taking is overLa La Landwill betheupset of the night.
DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
Fire at Sea- 0 points
I Am Not Your Negro– 45 points
Life, Animated- 50 points
O.J.: Made in America- 650 points
13th– 45 points
Last year, film critics and fans argued over whether or not the seven-hour epicO.J.: Made in Americawas a film or a television show. Now, it’s /Film’s favorite to win an Academy Award. Whoa.
DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
Extremis- 250 points
4.1 Miles- 30 points
Joe’s Violin- 240 points
Watani: My Homeland- 20 points
The White Helmets- 260 points
Here’s the secret about predicting the short film categories at the Academy Awards: no one knows anything. There’s no hard favorite here and anyone claiming to know for sure is crazy.
FILM EDITING
Arrival- 60 points
La La Land- 570 points
Moonlight- 170 points
Film Editing is a category that often ends up going to Best Picture winners by default. For that reason, this one will probably end up as yet anotherLa La Landwin.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Land of Mine- 45 points
A Man Called Ove- 60 points
The Salesman- 295 points
Tanna- 20 points
Toni Erdmann- 380 points
This is another unpredictable category, but the critically laudedToni Erdmannsqueaked ahead in our predictions. However, the politics surroundingThe Salesman(and the fact that it’s also a critical favorite) make it a close runner-up.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
A Man Called Ove- 233 points
Star Trek Beyond- 413 points
Suicide Squad– 154 points
This is one of the year’s weirdest categories. Because it’s impossible to imagineSuicide Squadwinning an Oscar and becauseA Man Called Oveis one of the least-seen nominees,Star Trek Beyond’s exceptional alien make-up designs should win the day.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Jackie- 0 points
La La Land- 690 points
Moonlight- 110 points
Passengers- 0 points
La La Land, being a movie completely driven by music in nearly every scene, has this one locked down. It’s just unfair at this point.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” fromLa La Land- 200 points
“Can’t Stop The Feeling” fromTrolls- 0 points
“City Of Stars” fromLa La Land- 490 points
“The Empty Chair” fromJim: The James Foley Story- 0 points
“How Far I’ll Go” fromMoana– 110 points
This is another category that should go toLa La Landand we give the edge of “City of Stars” over “Audition (The Fools Who Dream).” However, don’t count out “How Far I’ll Go,” because Disney has a strong track record with this category and who can resist the thought of Lin-Manuel Miranda EGOT-ing?
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Arrival- 0 points
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them- 150 points
Hail, Caesar!- 100 points
La La Land- 450 points
Passengers- 80 points
Are you getting tired ofLa La Landyet? Here’s another one for the trophy pile.
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
Blind Vaysha- 40 points
Borrowed Time- 120 points
Pear Cider and Cigarettes- 140 points
Pearl- 40 points
Piper- 460 points
Pixar may have been snubbed in the Best Animated Feature category, but their adorablePiperis the obvious frontrunner here.
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
Ennemis Intérieurs- 200 points
La Femme et le TGV- 70 points
Silent Nights- 210 points
Sing- 80 points
Timecode- 170 points
Once again: you guess is as good as ours.
SOUND EDITING
Arrival- 135 points
Deepwater Horizon- 40 points
Hacksaw Ridge- 320 points
La La Land- 275 points
Sully- 0 points
This could be anotherLa La Landvictory, but war movies have a strong track record in this category. And hey, would you look at that:Hacksaw Ridgeis here and it’s not going to win anything else.
SOUND MIXING
Arrival- 90 points
Hacksaw Ridge- 100 points
La La Land- 430 points
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story- 110 points
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi- 70 points
Sound Mixing tends to be trickier to predict than Sound Editing so…La La Land?
VISUAL EFFECTS
Deepwater Horizon- 0 points
Doctor Strange- 80 points
The Jungle Book- 500 points
Kubo and the Two Strings- 0 points
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story- 220 points
This is an impressive line-up, but expect the photo-realistic animals and environments ofThe Jungle Bookto win over the most voters.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Arrival- 250 points
Moonlight- 540 points
Moonlight’s got to win something else, right? Since this is the rare category where it’s not going head-to-head withLa La Land, this could be another moment for it to shine.
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Hell or High Water- 25 points
La La Land- 365 points
The Lobster- 20 points
Manchester by the Sea- 350 points
20th Century Women– 10 points
There are two scenarios here. Either theLa La Landwave is completely unstoppable and it takes this one as well…or it breaks in a few key places. If it’s the latter, expect this one to go toManchester by the Sea.
The 89th Annual Academy Awards will air this Sunday. We’ll be covering the big show live, but come back Monday morning to see which /Film writer has won bragging rights for the next 12 months. You can find all of our individual ballots on the next page.
Ethan Anderton’s Predictions
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures– 10 points
La La Land- 70 points
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight– 20 points
Casey Affleck,Manchester by the Sea- 80 points
Andrew Garfield,Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling,La La Land
Viggo Mortensen,Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington,Fences– 20 points
Isabelle Huppert,Elle– 30 points
Ruth Negga,Loving
Natalie Portman,Jackie
Emma Stone,La La Land– 70 points
Meryl Streep,Florence Foster Jenkins
Mahershala Ali,Moonlight- 70 points
Jeff Bridges,Hell or High Water– 10 points
Lucas Hedges,Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel,Lion- 20 points
Michael Shannon,Nocturnal Animals
Viola Davis,Fences– 100 points
Naomie Harris,Moonlight
Nicole Kidman,Lion
Octavia Spencer,Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams,Manchester by the Sea
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia– 80 points
La La Land– 100 points
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie- 50 points
La La Land– 50 points
La La Land- 80 points
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America- 80 points
13th– 20 points
Extremis– 80 points
Joe’s Violin- 20 points
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets
La La Land- 100 points
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman- 50 points
Toni Erdmann- 50 points
Star Trek Beyond- 100 points
Suicide Squad
Passengers
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” fromLa La Land- 20 points
“Can’t Stop The Feeling” fromTrolls
“City Of Stars” fromLa La Land- 60 points
“The Empty Chair” fromJim: The James Foley Story
“How Far I’ll Go” fromMoana- 20 points
Hail, Caesar!
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Piper– 100 points
Ennemis Intérieurs- 80 points
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Timecode– 20 points
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge- 80 points
La La Land- 20 points
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book- 100 points
Kubo and the Two Strings
Arrival- 20 points
Hidden Figures
Moonlight- 80 points
La La Land- 50 points
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea- 50 points
20th Century Women
David Chen’s Predictions
Moonlight– 50 points
Casey Affleck,Manchester by the Sea– 80 points
Ryan Gosling,La La Land- 20 points
Denzel Washington,Fences
Isabelle Huppert,Elle
Emma Stone,La La Land- 80 points
Mahershala Ali,Moonlight- 100 points
Jeff Bridges,Hell or High Water
Dev Patel,Lion
Viola Davis,Fences- 20 points
Octavia Spencer,Hidden Figures- 10 points
Moana– 20 points
Moonlight- 20 points
Allied- 10 points
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them- 25 points
La La Land
I Am Not Your Negro- 20 points
O.J.: Made in America- 70 points
13th– 10 points
4.1 Miles– 10 points
Joe’s Violin
The White Helmets– 90 points
La La Land -80 points
Moonlight -20 points
The Salesman– 100 points
Toni Erdmann
A Man Called Ove -33 points
Star Trek Beyond -33 points
Suicide Squad– 34 points
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” fromLa La Land- 70 points
“City Of Stars” fromLa La Land– 20 points
“How Far I’ll Go” fromMoana– 10 points
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them- 10 points
La La Land- 90 points
Ennemis Intérieurs
La Femme et le TGV- 30 points
Silent Nights -20 points
Sing– 20 points
Timecode– 30 points
Deepwater Horizon- 20 points
Hacksaw Ridge- 30 points
Hacksaw Ridge- 40 points
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story- 10 points
The Jungle Book
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story- 20 points
La La Land– 20 points
20th Century Women- 10 points
Jack Giroux’s Predictions
La La Land- 30 points
Moonlight- 60 points
Casey Affleck,Manchester by the Sea- 50 points
Ryan Gosling,La La Land- 50 points
Emma Stone,La La Land- 100 points
Viola Davis,Fences- 100 points
Zootopia- 100 points
La La Land -100 points
Allied- 80 points
O.J.: Made in America- 100 points
Extremis- 20 points
4.1 Miles- 20 points
The White Helmets- 20 points
Moonlight-30 points
Land of Mine- 25 points
The Salesman- 25 points
Toni Erdmann– 50 points
A Man Called Ove- 50 points
Star Trek Beyond- 50 points
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” fromLa La Land
“City Of Stars” fromLa La Land- 100 points
“How Far I’ll Go” fromMoana
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them- 70 points
Hail, Caesar!- 30 points
Blind Vaysha- 20 points
Borrowed Time- 20 points
Pear Cider and Cigarettes- 20 points
Pearl- 20 points
Piper- 20 points
Ennemis Intérieurs- 20 points
La Femme et le TGV- 20 points
Silent Nights- 20 points
Sing- 20 points
Timecode- 20 points
Hacksaw Ridge- 20 points
Moonlight -100 points
Manchester by the Sea- 100 points
Jacob Hall’s Predictions
Casey Affleck,Manchester by the Sea- 100 points
Jackie- 100 points
Joe’s Violin- 100 points
The Salesman
Toni Erdmann- 100 points
Piper- 100 points
Ennemis Intérieurs- 100 points
Angie Han’s Predictions
Casey Affleck,Manchester by the Sea– 60 points
Denzel Washington,Fences– 40 points
Emma Stone,La La Land– 100 points
Mahershala Ali,Moonlight– 100 points
Moana– 100 points
Arrival- 40 points
Moonlight- 30 points
Jackie- 80 points
La La Land- 10 points
The White Helmets- 100 points
La La Land- 60 points
Moonlight- 40 points
A Man Called Ove- 40 points
Toni Erdmann- 60 points
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” fromLa La Land- 40 points
“City Of Stars” fromLa La Land40 points
“How Far I’ll Go” fromMoana– 20 points
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them- 20 points
Hail, Caesar!- 20 points
Pear Cider and Cigarettes- 100 points
Silent Nights– 100 points
Arrival- 30 points
Arrival- 80 points
Manchester by the Sea- 80 points
Devindra Hardawar’s Predictions
Moonlight- 50 points
Casey Affleck,Manchester by the Sea– 100 points
Isabelle Huppert,Elle– 50 points
Emma Stone,La La Land– 50 points
I Am Not Your Negro- 25 points
O.J.: Made in America- 50 points
13th-25 points
Extremis- 50 points
The White Helmets- 50 points
A Man Called Ove- 100 points
Star Trek Beyond
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” fromLa La Land- 50 points
“City Of Stars” fromLa La Land– 50 points
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them- 50 points
Hail, Caesar!- 50 points
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story- 50 points
The Jungle Book- 50 points
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story– 50 points
Peter Sciretta’s Predictions
Emma Stone,La La Land -100 points
Mahershala Ali,Moonlight- 50 points
Jeff Bridges,Hell or High Water- 25 points
Dev Patel,Lion- 25 points
Viola Davis,Fences
Michelle Williams,Manchester by the Sea– 100 points
Moana– 50 points
Zootopia- 50 points
Jackie- 30 points
Extremis- 100 points
Land of Mine- 20 points
A Man Called Ove- 20 points
The Salesman- 20 points
Toni Erdmann- 20 points
Star Trek Beyond- 80 points
Suicide Squad- 20 points
“City Of Stars” fromLa La Land- 20 points
“How Far I’ll Go” fromMoana- 60 points
Borrowed Time- 80 points
Timecode– 80 points
Arrival- 25 points
La La Land- 75 points
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story– 30 points
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi– 70 points
Arrival- 100 points
Christopher’s Stipp’s Predictions
Zootopia– 100 points
Arrival– 100 points
O.J.: Made in America– 100 points
Joe’s Violin– 100 points
Toni Erdmann– 100 points
Suicide Squad– 100 points
“City Of Stars” fromLa La Land– 100 points
Hacksaw Ridge- 50 points
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story– 100 points
Moonlight– 100 points
